Asteroid Heading to Earth 2039

Researchers Andrea Milani, Steven R. Chesley, and Giovanni B. Valsecchi have predicted the potentially catastrophic arrival of an asteroid, now designated 1999 AN10, on Earth. It is something that we have feared since we first realized the potential for collision in space. An asteroid of sufficient magnitude to collide with the Earth and leave its mark on the surface would have a terrifying effect on the planet. This is the most popular scientific scenario we have to explain the extinction of dinosaurs and in 2039, it could mean our own extinction.

The Facts on 1999AN10

According to NASA and the Near Earth Object Program, the danger that this asteroid presents is still very real. It seems that 1999 AN10 is definitely moving away from the sun and towards our planet. Current projections based on the newest observations of the object’s trajectory state that 1999 AN10 will reach the closest point of it’s path to Earth itself  on August 7^th 2027. NASA reports that the asteroid may pass as closely as 37,000 km from the Earth’s center and nineteen miles above the surface, but makes a point of stating that it will pass no nearer. NASA confidently states that there will be no collision in 2027.

The Future Trajectory of 1999AN10

The calculations as to the miss distance are admittedly uncertain, however. It is just as possible that 1999 AN10 could pass well outside the Moon’s orbit—keeping it from affecting the Earth at all. Worryingly, there is a chance that the asteroid could pass by the Earth in 2027 only to be slingshotted back in such a way as to collide with it in 2039. This is the real danger uncovered by Milani, Chesley, and Valsecchi’s calculations. Though the chances of this actually occurring are now set at one in ten million, they are still much higher than anyone would like to see. Observation of the object’s trajectory will continue to be closely monitored for just that reason.